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The fundamental goal of this course is to provide an introduction to the methods and practices of decision analysis. The course aims to teach the ways to aid managerial decision making by applying a scientific approach to decisions problems that involve quantitative factors. The methods include influence diagrams, decision trees, utility functions, and analytic hierarchy process.
Modeling of the decision problem: Structuring decisions, influence diagrams, decision trees, risk profiles, sensitivity analysis. Modeling uncertainty: Probability concepts, value of information. Modeling preferences: Risk, utility theory, conflicting objectives, analytic hierarchy process.
Upon succesful completion of this course, a student will be able to
1. Identify uncertainties and multiple objectives in decision problems.(k)
2. Understand the behavioral aspects of risk attitudes. (k)
3. Structure and model complex decision problems. (e)
4. Apply appropriate techniques and methods to solve decision analysis problems (k)